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Probability-Driven Triggers for Accelerated Mutation

Green instant-speed answers have always loved bending the stakes of combat, and Accelerated Mutation is a perfect case study in probability meeting power. With a mana cost of 3GG and an effect that reads, “Target creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the greatest mana value among permanents you control,” this Scourge gem invites you to think about math as a weapon 🧙‍♂️🔥. It’s not just a raw buff—it’s a probability puzzle: what is the likely ceiling of your boost on the turn you draw it, given the permanents already on your battlefield?

“Its food just got a lot smaller and its stomach a lot bigger.” — flavor text from Accelerated Mutation reminds us that in MTG, appetite and ambition tend to rise together.

What makes this instant so interesting is that X is not a fixed number—it’s dynamic and driven by your board state. The greatest mana value among permanents you control can swing dramatically from turn to turn, especially in green’s ramp-heavy arsenals. The card’s relatively modest mana cost (CMC 5) means you can often cast it once you’ve started stacking a board with creatures, a few mana accelerants, and perhaps a power-house threat lurking in the wings. The potential to buff a single creature by a large X can swing combat in a single stroke, turning a potential stalemate into a slam-dunk victory. It’s a reminder that green doesn’t always need brute force—sometimes it needs a precise, statistically favored nudge ⚔️.

Core mechanics at a glance

• Color and type: Green instant, fitting squarely into mono-green or ramp-heavy builds where you already control multiple permanents.
• Mana cost: {3}{G}{G} — a reasonable commitment for the late-mid game when your board has started to inflate in complexity.
• Effect: Target creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the greatest mana value among permanents you control. The “greatest mana value” clause means higher-cost spells or permanents on the battlefield directly lift your buff ceiling.
• Rarity and era: Common in Scourge, a set that often rewarded fun, flexible answers in green strategies. Its art and flavor reflect a predatory growth pattern—expand, consume, accelerate.
• Flavor and vibe: The card’s flavor text hints at appetite and acceleration being inseparable—perfect for a mechanic that scales with how fast you can assemble a board full of diverse mana values.

When you simulate the outcomes of Accelerated Mutation across a range of board states, a few patterns emerge. The buff scales with the maximum mana value in play, not the total number of permanents. That means you can run into moments where a single, mind-bogglingly expensive permanent on the field is enough to turn a single-card buff into a game-changing swing. The probability slope becomes steeper as you add high-mana-value permanents—think of mana rocks or late-game haymakers that push your MV well into the upper echelons. It’s not just about raw power; it’s about the odds that you’ll have a marquee permanent on board when the instant resolution happens 🧙‍♂️🎲.

Let’s translate this into practical intuition. If your board contains permanents with mana values of 2, 3, and 7, X is 7 on that turn, yielding a sizable +7/+7 boost to your chosen creature. Add a few more high-MV threats—say a 5 and a 6—and you’re nudging X upward even as you cast Accelerated Mutation. In a green deck that ramps into large spells and creatures, the simulation often shows you’ll hit a respectable X on most mid-to-late turns. The real skill is managing tempo so that you’re not faced with a dead card in hand when you need to topple a blocker or push past a stalemate. The more you cultivate a board that includes multiple high-MV permanents, the higher the expected buff becomes, and the more often you’ll threaten lethal swings in a single combat step. 🧩💎

From a design perspective, Accelerated Mutation embodies efficient tempo: it’s flexible, a cantrip-like boost if you’re light on mana, but a serious finisher if your board already holds power. Its green identity is reinforced by memories of mana acceleration and “stickiness” in green strategies. The card’s timing often dictates when to pressure an opponent’s life total versus when to hold and sculpt the battlefield for an over-the-top alpha strike. For cube drafts or EDH tables that prize big-moon phases, it’s the sort of spell that invites careful probability accounting and creative timing. 🧙‍♂️💥

As you study simulation results, you’ll notice that the real strength of Accelerated Mutation isn’t merely the size of the buff—it’s the context. A well-timed buff can neuter a tough blocker, enable a surprise alpha strike, or turn a stalemate into a dramatic endgame. In a deck with steady ramp and a menagerie of permanents with varying mana values, you can exceed expectations and convert theoretical X into actual, dramatic damage before your opponents even realize what happened. That’s the magic of probability meeting instant-speed power in green. 🎨⚡

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